Based on 123 years of rainfall data, many areas in Kerala are at risk of disasters during August. This information comes from a map created by a scientist from the Indian Meteorology Department. The map used computer learning and geographic information system techniques, along with rainfall records from 110 weather stations in Kerala between 1901 and 2023.

The map shows that parts of northern Kerala, as well as the Idukki and Pathanamthitta regions, are particularly vulnerable due to the way heavy rain is distributed. Areas marked in red on the map have experienced at least three heavy rainfall events in August, while orange areas have had two intense rainfall events. Yellow areas have seen at least one heavy rainfall event, and green areas have not had such events in August for many years.

While August has been a difficult month in the past, with major floods in 2018 and 2019, it actually receives less rain than June and July, which are the wettest months of the southwest monsoon. In 2018, heavy rain in May, June, and July saturated the ground and water bodies, leading to a record 820.9 millimeters (about 32.3 inches) of rain in August, which was much more than the usual 445 millimeters (about 17.5 inches). This caused widespread flooding in southern and central Kerala. In 2019, August also saw record rainfall of 950.5 millimeters (about 37.4 inches), flooding southern Kerala, though the floods were less severe because the preceding months had less rain.

Historically, major floods in Kerala, like the one in 1924, occurred in July, not August. August rainfall has exceeded 800 millimeters (about 31.5 inches) only five times in recorded history, with two of those instances happening in this century. For the current year, the weather department has predicted below-average rainfall for August, and the first half of the month has seen less rain overall, with only a few short periods of heavy showers.

Original article

Actionable Information: There is no actionable information provided. The article describes past events and future predictions without offering any steps individuals can take to prepare or mitigate risks.

Educational Depth: The article offers some educational depth by explaining the methodology behind the risk map (computer learning, GIS, weather stations) and providing historical context for floods in Kerala, including the role of preceding rainfall. It also clarifies that August, while risky, receives less rain than June and July. However, it could have provided more detail on the specific "computer learning" techniques used or how the "heavy rainfall events" were defined.

Personal Relevance: The article has moderate personal relevance for residents of Kerala, particularly those in northern regions, Idukki, and Pathanamthitta. It highlights potential disaster risks during August, which could influence personal safety decisions, travel plans, or property preparedness. However, the relevance is limited by the lack of specific guidance on what to do.

Public Service Function: The article serves a limited public service function by informing the public about potential flood risks based on scientific data. It acts as a warning, but it lacks official emergency contact information or specific safety advice that would be typical of a public service announcement.

Practicality of Advice: No advice is given, so the practicality cannot be assessed.

Long-Term Impact: The article has minimal long-term impact. While understanding historical rainfall patterns and risk areas can contribute to long-term preparedness, the article itself does not provide the tools or knowledge for sustained action.

Emotional or Psychological Impact: The article might induce some anxiety or concern due to the mention of disaster risks. However, it does not offer coping mechanisms or a sense of empowerment, potentially leaving readers feeling helpless rather than prepared.

Clickbait or Ad-Driven Words: The article does not appear to use clickbait or ad-driven language. The tone is informative and factual.

Missed Chances to Teach or Guide: The article missed a significant opportunity to provide practical guidance. For instance, it could have included: * Specific preparedness tips: What should residents in vulnerable areas do to prepare for heavy rainfall? * Links to official resources: Directing readers to the Indian Meteorology Department or local disaster management authorities for real-time updates and emergency plans. * Explanation of the risk map: While it describes the color-coding, a visual representation or a more detailed explanation of how to interpret the map for specific localities would be beneficial.

A normal person could find better information by visiting the official website of the Indian Meteorology Department for current weather alerts and advisories, and by checking local government disaster management websites for specific preparedness guidelines for their region.

The reliance on external data and predictive mapping, while offering information, can inadvertently diminish local knowledge and the inherent responsibility of families and communities to understand and adapt to their environment. When survival advice is presented as a product of complex, impersonal analysis, it can weaken the bonds of shared experience and mutual reliance that have historically guided communities through natural challenges. This shift can erode the natural duties of fathers and mothers to teach their children about the land and its patterns, and elders to pass down wisdom gained through generations of direct observation.

The emphasis on past disaster events, particularly floods in 2018 and 2019, highlights a potential for dependency on external assessments rather than fostering self-reliance within kinship groups. If communities begin to view their safety solely through the lens of these external predictions, it can reduce the active stewardship of the land, as the responsibility for understanding and mitigating risks is outsourced. This can lead to a decline in the practical skills needed for land care and a weakening of the collective duty to maintain the resources that sustain future generations.

The text mentions that August receives less rain than June and July, yet it is identified as a period of risk. This nuance, if not clearly understood and acted upon at the local level, could lead to complacency or misdirected efforts. The core duty of families is to ensure the survival and well-being of their kin, which includes proactively managing resources and preparing for potential hardships. When the focus shifts to interpreting external data without a corresponding increase in local action and responsibility, the strength of these kinship bonds can be tested.

The historical context of floods in July, not August, suggests that the perceived risk in August might be a newer phenomenon or a shift in patterns that requires a re-evaluation of traditional knowledge and practices. If communities become overly reliant on a single data source or a particular interpretation of risk, it can undermine the trust and responsibility that neighbors have for one another in times of need. The natural duty to protect the vulnerable, including children and elders, is best served when it is rooted in immediate, local understanding and collective action, rather than abstract forecasts.

The consequence of a widespread acceptance of this data-driven approach without a corresponding strengthening of local, familial responsibility is a gradual erosion of self-sufficiency. Families may become less inclined to develop their own resilience strategies, relying instead on external pronouncements. This can lead to a weakening of the intergenerational transfer of knowledge regarding land stewardship and disaster preparedness, ultimately diminishing the capacity of the clan to survive and thrive. Children yet to be born will inherit a community less equipped to manage its own destiny, and community trust will be fractured as the shared responsibility for survival is diluted. The land itself, neglected in its practical care due to a misplaced reliance on external analysis, will suffer.

The text uses strong words to create fear about August rainfall. It says many areas are "at risk of disasters" and that parts of Kerala are "particularly vulnerable." This language makes August sound very dangerous. It focuses on the negative possibilities without balancing them with the current year's prediction of below-average rainfall.

The text presents a contrast between August and other months in a way that might mislead. It states, "While August has been a difficult month in the past... it actually receives less rain than June and July." This is true, but it follows descriptions of August disasters. This ordering might make readers think August is still the main problem, even though the text admits other months are wetter.

The text uses specific examples from past floods to highlight August's danger. It mentions the "record 820.9 millimeters" in August 2018 and "record rainfall of 950.5 millimeters" in August 2019. These high numbers are presented to show August's potential for harm. However, it also notes that the 2019 floods were less severe because earlier months had less rain, suggesting a more complex cause than just August rainfall alone.

The text includes a statement that might seem to downplay the current situation. It says, "For the current year, the weather department has predicted below-average rainfall for August." This fact is presented after detailing past August disasters. This placement could make the current prediction seem less important or a minor detail compared to the historical warnings.

The text conveys a sense of concern and caution regarding potential disasters in Kerala during August. This emotion is primarily established through phrases like "at risk of disasters," "particularly vulnerable," and the description of areas marked in red, orange, and yellow on the map, indicating past heavy rainfall events. The strength of this concern is moderate to high, as it's supported by extensive data (123 years) and scientific analysis. The purpose of this emotion is to alert the reader to a potential danger, aiming to make them aware of the risks. This concern guides the reader's reaction by fostering a sense of worry, encouraging them to pay attention to the information presented and potentially take preventative measures. The writer uses the detailed explanation of the map and the historical context of floods to build trust in the warning, making the concern feel well-founded.

The text also evokes a sense of seriousness and gravity when discussing past flood events, such as those in 2018 and 2019, and the historical flood of 1924. Words like "major floods," "record rainfall," and "widespread flooding" contribute to this. This seriousness is significant, as it highlights the destructive potential of heavy rainfall. Its purpose is to underscore the importance of the current risk assessment by drawing parallels to past devastating events. This helps guide the reader's reaction by making the potential future disasters seem more real and impactful, thus increasing the urgency of the warning. The writer employs a comparative approach, contrasting the rainfall amounts in different years and months, and using specific data points (millimeter measurements) to emphasize the severity of past events. This makes the warning more persuasive by grounding it in factual, albeit emotionally charged, evidence.

While not explicitly stated as an emotion, there's an underlying tone of preparedness or anticipation related to the scientific analysis. The mention of "computer learning and geographic information system techniques" and the creation of a map by a scientist from the Indian Meteorology Department suggests a proactive approach to understanding and predicting weather patterns. This aspect builds trust in the information provided. The purpose here is to establish the credibility of the warning, showing that it is based on rigorous scientific methods. This helps guide the reader's reaction by making them more receptive to the information and the potential risks, as it comes from a reliable source. The writer uses factual descriptions of the scientific process to create this sense of trust, subtly persuading the reader that the warning is valid and should be taken seriously.